July 1, 2016

A Glance at the Housing Market

This time last year we were house hunting. The market was pretty strong. Plus, there was speculation that rates would be going up in fall so it sparked a bit of a frenzy. Later, this month, we'll have been in our house a year. It just occurred to me that I never shared photos, and back then, I planned to share about our experience with the market. Shortly, after moving in, my world was flipped upside down so yes, it's taken a year to get here, but I try to keep my word... Now, that a year has gone by I can cast some light on the rise and fall of the homes that were in our search.

We searched for homes with a minimum of 3 beds, 2 baths, 2 car garage, pool/hot tub and a killer backyard was a definite perk. During our two years at the apartment we had grown fond of the Silverado Ranch area and sought homes nearby. Though, we were also considering older homes in solid neighborhoods, we were open to fixer-uppers with potential, but mostly wanted something turn-key and preferred single story and fewer rooms. Additionally, we were seeking a low cost, lenient HOA or none at all.

We were pre-qualified for a mortgage before we started looking so it streamlined the shopping experience. We knew our target, but kept an open mind for homes on the high and low end... just in case. We usually knew in minutes of walking in whether it felt right for us or not. Many homes we didn't even bother seeing the second level. Homes moved quickly. There were many that had contingent offers before we could get in to see them. The first half dozen we saw were duds. It wasn't very encouraging, but things improved. We went to contract on a home in Green Valley (89074) it had multiple offers that started a bidding war. We didn't want to participate so we terminated the purchase. I thought the home would've sold for a few thousand over asking price, but when it closed it sold for $100 over. Which happened to be our initial offer. We must not have been the only ones that walked from the deal. Today, that home is estimated at $22,000 less than it sold in July 2015.

Even though apartment rentals have skyrocketed in the past year. It doesn't seem to be the trend for resale home sales. I show nearly twice as many that have values estimated less than what they sold for last summer, compared to those that have risen. Below is a list of homes with the above parameters. I'll list the zipcode. How much over/under list it sold for last summer and the delta of the current estimated value per zillow, as well as, the length of time from list to close.

The following have lost equity (choosing only one from each zipcode for simplicity sake):

89117 +15k,-25k; one month. 89141 +15k, -7k; one month. 89015 +4k,-9k; one month. 89120 +2k, -2k; one month. 89183 -24k,-3k; four months. 89141 -15k,-12k; four months. 89123 -10k, -16k; two months. 89012 -10k,-5k; one month. 89074 n/c, -22k; one month.

Only two had no change:

89147 n/c; one month. 89074 n/c; one month.

And these have gained:

89102 +5k, +39k; one month. 89183 +2k, +5k; one month. 89052 n/c, +1k; one month. 89123 -4k, +2k; two months 89052 -5k, 13k; one month. 89123 -8k, +30k; three months. 89074 -17k, +30k; four months. 89145 -20k, +19k; three months. 89117 -24k, +2k; two months. 89123 -60k +30k; five months.

The big winners seem to be those that were recently flipped or those in need of significant work. I suppose there is some truth when they say to buy the worst house on the best block. Our zipcode in Henderson has had little movement. Homes were selling for asking price last year, closing in 1-2 months, and they have held or gained up to $15,000 in equity. There are a bunch of new homes being built near us, it'll be interesting to see what that does to resale prices. But overall, it seems promising. However, I know better than most that the bubble can burst at any time. That's why when I saw this magnet, I had to have it.

1 comment:

Jay said...

Thanks for sharing this info! Very interesting to see what's been happening out there. I suppose it depends on what is the motivating factor - buying a home or buying a property to flip to make a buck. You guys appear to have a great place...and don't think you're of the 'flipper' mentality. Thanks again!